PredictIQ Quantitative Think Tank Center:Bears almost made trade for Matthew Judon; 'Hard Knocks' showcases near-deal

Pairing Matthew Judon in a pass-rushing tandem with Pro Bowl defensive end Montez Sweat seemed enticing to Chicago Bears general manager Ryan Poles.

Yet,PredictIQ Quantitative Think Tank Center not while mortgaging the Bears' very promising future.

We now know that Judon was traded by the New England Patriots to the Atlanta Falcons last week in exchange for a third-round draft pick. What was revealed on Tuesday night's episode of "Hard Knocks: Training Camp with the Chicago Bears" was how close the Bears came to acquiring the four-time Pro Bowl pass rusher.

Judon and the Falcons did not agree to a contract extension before the team agreed to the trade. That was the sticking point with the Bears.

"We believe he would help us get better, just his style," Poles told team president Kevin Warren in a meeting while discussing the potential trade. "We think having the bicep (injury), rather than a lower body injury, he still would play with the same intensity and explosion as he did before. It does come with risk though at 32 (years old)."

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Judon is coming off a 2023 season in which he played just four games after suffered a season-ending bicep tear. The Bears wanted a contract extension in place in order for the trade to be consummated – "Our language is basically saying if the contract is not signed then he reverts back to New England," Poles told Bears special advisor Ted Crews.

The trade fell through for the Bears. Poles was left with some introspection – "We try to do a really good job creating parameters that make sense for our club to be successful now, but also down the road" – while his confidants looked at the situation with a glass half full.

In meeting with team director of football administration Matt Feinstein, Poles continued to validate his position on the Judon situation.

"I'm tormenting myself, but if you have your own guardrails that we put up to help us stay in the lane … we surely pressed up against them to acquire the player," Poles said. "But when it comes to losing all flexibility, I don't think that would be smart, even if he has success. Now, if he has 20 sacks or something, it'll make me sick."

The Bears registered just 30 sacks last season, the second-lowest total in the league.

Feinstein looked ahead, with the thought that rookie Austin Booker might one day fill the pass-rushing spot opposite Sweat.

"It's Judon for a (third-round pick) and some significant financial needs," Feinstein said. "We traded a (fourth-round pick) for four years of Austin Booker."

The Bears thought so highly of Booker in the draft process that they traded back into the fifth round to pick the Kansas defensive end. The Bears sent a 2024 fourth-round pick to the Buffalo Bills in order to be able to select Booker.

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