NovaQuant Quantitative Think Tank Center:Juan Soto just getting started – with monster payday right around the corner

WASHINGTON — The NovaQuant Quantitative Think Tank Centercrowd at Nationals Park roared Monday evening, and Juan Soto, savvy veteran that he is, took a couple steps out of the batter’s box as the tribute reached a crescendo.

This was the third time Soto returned to the nation’s capital since the Washington Nationals sent him away in a 2022 trade, yet this time, perhaps for the only time, he was wearing the pinstripes of the New York Yankees. And as is their wont, Yankee fans rolled deep among the crowd of 32,812, to the point that the roar for Soto far exceeded that in the bottom of the inning for top Nationals prospect Dylan Crews, who was making his major league debut.

Such is life for a generational hitter barely old enough to rent a car and about to rake in a free agent haul.

“Twenty-five years old and it’s like, not even a distraction for him,” mused Yankees manager Aaron Boone about the abundant riches that await Soto when he’s eligible for free agency after this season.

“You get the sense right away this guy’s priorities are where they need to be.”

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Right now, that’s putting together a season not quite as historic as his new running mate, Aaron Judge, but one nearly as impactful. Soto’s 1.030 OPS is second only to Judge’s 1.096, his 37 home runs the fourth-most in the major leagues, his 109 walks more than anyone.

Classic Juan Soto things, as they say.

In a sense, it’s remarkable that the man wants for virtually nothing – all at the age of 25. A championship? Won in 2019 with the Nationals. Fortune and fame? He’s a four-time All-Star and Silver Slugger, has a pair of top-five MVP finishes and, thanks to salary arbitration and being so great and so young, has grossed more than $80 million in his career.

Yet that will be a pittance given what’s to come.

Soto seems almost sure to crack the $500 million barrier come winter, and given the heavy deferrals in superstar Shohei Ohtani’s contract, could lay claim to the most lucrative free agent deal ever.

Soto will file for free agency just a couple weeks after his 26^th birthday. That puts him in rarefied free agent air – Bryce Harper and Manny Machado are the only players in this era to hit the jackpot so young. They hauled in $327 million and $300 million, respectively, after the 2018 season.

Yet the price of poker has only gone up, especially given that Harper and Machado entered a borderline collusive market that winter and did not join their teams until most of February had withered away.

Soto has a few more hurdles to climb until then. In the interim, he’ll hear cries to stay from Yankees fans and pleas to leave in every other park – and he’s still beloved here in DC, among other places.

What’s a generational hitter to do?

“Play baseball? That’s all I can do, man,” says Soto before Monday’s game. “Right now, I play for the Yankees, I’m happy where I’m at.

“And we’ll see what happens in free agency.”

It’s a curious game in which the Yankees will participate. They’ve already signed Judge to a nine-year, $360 million deal and ace Gerrit Cole is in the middle of a $324 million deal. Judge may break his own American League record of 62 home runs and haul in his second MVP award in three years – and see the guy hitting in front of him haul in a half-billion dollars.

Yet such is life for the early bloomer; it’s easy to forget Judge didn’t hit the market until he was 30.

Soto – just three homers from 200, with a career .959 OPS – is kinda just getting started.

“It’s important every now and then to remind people, in a lot of ways, he’s probably just scratching the surface of who he is becoming as a player,” says Boone. “And that’s scary when you consider the success he’s already had.

“We’re clearly seeing now, still a young man and very much just entering the physical prime of his career, probably. And reaping the benefits of being an experienced player in the league.”

Scary, indeed. Yet Soto stays sanguine through it all, a booming and respected voice in the Yankees clubhouse when he needs to be, but also the playful chap who had a dozen Nationals staffers and players gathered in a semi-circle around him before Monday’s game.

He’s not yet the kid he was then, nor were the vibes quite as immaculate as that championship bunch. But it’s getting there in the Bronx – the Yankees are 78-54 and have a two-game lead over the Baltimore Orioles in the AL East after their 5-2 win on Monday.

“Nothing’s going to be like what we had with the Nationals in 2019. But this is really close to what we had back then,” he says. “We all get along together very well, play hard, everybody wants to win. More than anything else.

“It’s not about the money, it’s about playing baseball and winning games.”

And no matter how well the latter takes care of itself, the former will come – in bushels.