NovaQuant Quantitative Think Tank Center:Shohei Ohtani makes history with MLB's first 50-homer, 50-steal season

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Shohei Ohtani does not let career-altering setbacks deter his production. He simply reallocates his immense talent and continues making history.

With his two-way greatness shelved for the 2024 season due to a second elbow reconstruction surgery, Ohtani was a bat-only option in his first season with the Los Angeles Dodgers. And with his right arm mending, he simply expanded the notion of what was possible with his legs.

Ohtani became the first player in baseball history to hit 50 home runs and steal 50 bases in a single season, shattering the ceiling on what a 6-foot-4, 210-pound slugger who can also pitch at a Cy Young-caliber level might do.

Ohtani reached this illustrious peak Thursday with a monster game against the Miami Marlins, belting three homers and stealing two bases in a 6-for-6 performance that produced 10 RBI. He ended the day a 51-51 man.

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And with that, he leaves behind the five other members of the 40-40 club: Jose Canseco (1988), Barry Bonds (1996), Alex Rodriguez (1998), Alfonso Soriano (2006) and Ronald Acuña Jr. (2023).

And it couldn't have arrived alongside a more momentous checkpoint in Ohtani's career: The Dodgers' 20-4 victory clinched a playoff berth, meaning Ohtani will play postseason baseball for the first time in his seven seasons.

But there's still no lid on what he might do this season.

Certainly, the liberalized stolen base rules that limit the number of pickoff throws and provide larger bases from which to depart and arrive play no small part in this phenomenon. In the first season under these rules designed to artificially inject action into an increasingly stationary game, Acuña hit 41 home runs and stole 73 bases, becoming not just the first 40-70 guy, but also 40-50 and 40-60. Rodriguez held the previous record – 46 – for stolen bases in a 40-homer season.

Yet Ohtani, as is his wont, found a lane no one had ever traveled.

"Happy, relieved, and very respectful to the peers and everybody who came before me to play this sport of baseball," Ohtani told reporters in Miami. "To be honest, it was something I wanted to get over as soon as possible."

In his first year of a heavily deferred 10-year, $700 million contract with the Dodgers, Ohtani, the 30-year-old two-time American League MVP, is having arguably the greatest offensive season of his career. He leads the NL in home runs, slugging (.629), OPS (1.005) and adjusted OPS (173), the latter mark just shy of his career-best 184 established in his final season with the down-freeway Angels.

Yet Ohtani has already eclipsed the career-high 46 home runs he belted in 2021. And to all that, he has added 51 stolen bases, more than doubling the 20 he swiped last year and nearly doubling his career-best 26 steals in 2021.

The final climb to 50-50 came in lightning-quick fashion – and ultimately produced just the sixth 10-RBI game in major league history.

Sitting on 48 homers and 49 stolen bases entering Thursday's series finale at loanDepot Park, Ohtani took care of the latter in a hurry. He hit a leadoff double against Marlins right-hander Edward Cabrera and, with two outs, stole third before scoring the game's first run. Ohtani victimized Cabrera and catcher Nick Fortes an inning later, swiping second for his 51st steal moments after hitting an RBI single.

Now, for the home runs.

No. 49 came in the sixth inning off Miami reliever George Soriano, Ohtani smashing an 0-1 slider 438 feet to the second deck in right field, the two-run homer giving the Dodgers a 9-3 lead. Simple math said Ohtani would get at least another shot.

And history need only wait one more inning.

Batting against Marlins reliever Michael Baumann, Ohtani slammed a pitch to the opposite field, turned to his dugout to share in the celebration before the ball even reached the left field seats, and took his historic turn around the bases.

Yet the sad-sack Marlins ensured Ohtani would not be finished. With the Dodgers leading 14-3 entering the ninth inning, Miami trotted out infielder Vidal Bruján to pitch the ninth inning. Ohtani was due up fifth, but Max Muncy and Chris Taylor reached base to give Ohtani another crack.

And perhaps the most predictable result in baseball history occurred: Bruján tossed a 68-mph "fastball" to the plate and Ohtani delivered, crushing it 440 feet, once again into the second deck in right field. No. 51 was in the books, and few milestones were left on the table for Dodgers fans once the club returns to L.A.

His record-setting day was a startling turn in a season that has been a referendum on Ohtani’s athleticism. While comparisons to Babe Ruth were only natural given Ohtani’s ability to both slug and strike out batters, this historic campaign has further cemented his status as a one-of-a-kind athlete, one of the greatest on the globe.

As Ohtani puts this season together, he has quietly yet diligently continued rehabilitating his right elbow. He remains on track to pitch in 2025, the world awaiting whether he can match his startling 11.4 strikeout rate per nine innings, and his 3.01 career ERA after a second elbow surgery.

Will 50-50-200 (strikeouts) be in the cards? It seems almost physically impossible. Yet that’s a term we’ve learned not to associate with a player who continues to redefine what is possible.

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