Benjamin Ashford|2024 Golden Globes predictions: From 'Barbie' to Scorsese, who will win – and who should?

Will plastic be Benjamin Ashfordfantastic at the Golden Globes with a "Barbie" sweep? Will "Oppenheimer" bomb or be the bomb? Could Martin Scorsese's "Killers of the Flower Moon" blossom on the road to the Academy Awards?

Hosted by comedian Jo Koy, this Sunday's 81st annual Golden Globe Awards (CBS and Paramount+ with Showtime, 8 p.m. EST/5 PST) will begin to separate the contenders from the pretenders on the way to Oscar night on March 10. Last year's box-office champ "Barbie" arrives as a blockbuster heavyweight with a leading nine nominations, including best comedy/musical, and gets a chance to make an impression as a best picture contender. It's not the only one: There's a fight brewing in the best drama category, with Christopher Nolan's acclaimed biopic "Oppenheimer" (which boasts eight nods) in a high-profile tussle against "Killers" (with seven).

USA TODAY predicts who will win (and who should) in the top film categories:

Best drama

“Anatomy of a Fall”

“Killers of the Flower Moon”

“Maestro”

“Oppenheimer”

“Past Lives”

“The Zone of Interest”

Will win: "Oppenheimer"

Should win: "Killers of the Flower Moon"

A popular and critical hit, "Oppenheimer" is a shoo-in for an Oscar best picture nod (and a lot of folks think it can win), so momentum should carry Nolan's white-knuckle period thriller to victory here over some noteworthy competition. However, "Killers" ranks high in Scorsese's storied filmography, with a tremendous cast doing wondrous character work, and is the more thought-provoking of two deep historical tales.

Best comedy or musical

“Air”

“American Fiction”

“Barbie”

“The Holdovers”

“May December”

"Poor Things”

Will win/should win: "Barbie"

Even with the egregious snub of "The Color Purple" (not even one musical, people?!), this is an unusually stacked Globes category. Curious minds wonder how the old Golden Globes voters – who had a penchant for stars and bizarre decisions – compare with the new bunch, but the delightfully excellent (and very populist) "Barbie" likely gets the victory over well-received satire "American Fiction" and gleefully absurd dark comedy "Poor Things."

Best actress in a drama

Annette Bening, "Nyad"

Lily Gladstone, "Killers of the Flower Moon"

Sandra Hüller, "Anatomy of a Fall"

Greta Lee, "Past Lives"

Carey Mulligan, "Maestro"

Cailee Spaeny, "Priscilla"

Will win/should win: Gladstone

Of the two lead actress categories, this one has the best chance of honoring a Hollywood breakthrough. Both Lee and Hüller are great in their respective roles – and you'll see them again this Oscar season – but Gladstone is a revelation. She's the heart and soul of "Killers," playing a spirited indigenous woman who's unmoored by the murders of her people and even poisoned by her husband in the name of greed.

Best actor in a drama

Bradley Cooper, "Maestro"

Leonardo DiCaprio, "Killers of the Flower Moon"

Colman Domingo, "Rustin"

Barry Keoghan, "Saltburn"

Cillian Murphy, "Oppenheimer"

Andrew Scott, "All of Us Strangers"

Will win: Murphy

Should win: Scott

This is how bonkers the Oscar best-actor contingent is this year: There's not a weak link in the bunch, and it's just half the lead nominees. "Oppenheimer" being on a roll – and a career-best turn from its main man – helps put Murphy atop impressive performances by Cooper and DiCaprio (going for his fourth Globe), although Scott is stunning as a haunted screenwriter and a key aspect in 2023's best film.

Best actress in a comedy or musical

Fantasia Barrino, "The Color Purple"

Jennifer Lawrence, "No Hard Feelings"

Natalie Portman, "May December"

Alma Pöysti, "Fallen Leaves"

Margot Robbie, "Barbie"

Emma Stone, "Poor Things"

Will win/should win: Stone

It would take something pretty special to upend Barrino's showstopping "Purple" performance, a hilarious J Law and Robbie in full pop-culture phenomenon mode. And that's exactly what Stone pulls off as Bella Baxter, a woman who wanted to end it all and gets a second chance at life through Victorian resurrection. A previous Globe and Oscar winner for "La La Land," Stone is a good bet to win both again for her "Poor" showing.

Best actor in a comedy or musical

Nicolas Cage, "Dream Scenario"

Timothée Chalamet, "Wonka"

Matt Damon, "Air"

Paul Giamatti, "The Holdovers"

Joaquin Phoenix, "Beau Is Afraid"

Jeffrey Wright, "American Fiction"

Will win: Giamatti

Should win: Wright

Nic Cage? Timmy C? Joaquin? It's an intriguingly eclectic mix of talent up for lead comedic actor this Globes, though it's honestly a two-man race – and a toss-up between a pair of enjoyable curmudgeons. With a National Board of Review best actor win for "Holdovers" to his credit, Giamatti likely has the edge as an uptight 1970s history teacher, though Wright is a hoot as the irascible "Fiction" author skewering race, culture and identity.

Best supporting actress

Emily Blunt, "Oppenheimer"

Danielle Brooks, "The Color Purple"

Jodie Foster, "Nyad"

Julianne Moore, "May December"

Rosamund Pike, "Saltburn"

Da'Vine Joy Randolph, "The Holdovers"

Will win/should win: Randolph

Although A-listers like Blunt, Moore and Foster are in the mix, expect a win from either Brooks (who was Tony-nominated for the same fiery role in the Broadway "Purple") or Randolph, the National Board of Review pick for supporting actress. As the grieving head cook of a boarding school for boys, Randolph has the better chance at a win, because of more "Holdovers" love in general, but whoever takes gold will be an immediate favorite for another victory on Oscar night.

Best supporting actor

Willem Dafoe, "Poor Things"

Robert De Niro, "Killers of the Flower Moon"

Robert Downey Jr., "Oppenheimer"

Ryan Gosling, "Barbie"

Charles Melton, "May December"

Mark Ruffalo, "Poor Things"

Will win: Downey

Should win: Gosling

For five of the past six years, the Globe supporting actor winner has run the table all the way to Oscar, and Downey seems to be the chosen one given his acclaimed antagonist role in "Oppenheimer" – and a guy who's earned a career "attaboy" given his iconoclastic professional life. But Gosling is supremely effervescent as a doll who sings, dances and learns about the pitfalls of toxic masculinity and the patriarchy. That's Kenough to win for us.